09.03.2017
ATP Challenger
Clay
Santiago, Chile

Nicolas Jarry (249) is playing at home soil and he has produced some good results lately. He usually plays on the Futures level and struggles to deliver against better opponents. He has won 5 matches and lost 21 against players ranked 130 or better, which is a very poor record.

I am surprised that the bookies have Joao Souza (125) as an underdog in this match. His recent form is decent and he impressed me by beating the young super-talent Casper Ruud in the previous round. If he put up another performance like that I reckon he will win this match comfortably. I am not sure the home advantage is that important, as Jarry had only won one match ever in Santiago before this tournament, while Souza have been in a semi-final previously. MarathonBet have priced Souza at 2.00, and I will play that, as I believe there is more than a 50% chance of a Souza win here.

Joao Souza at 2.00 for 2 units.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s