Nicolas Jarry (249) is playing at home soil and he has produced some good results lately. He usually plays on the Futures level and struggles to deliver against better opponents. He has won 5 matches and lost 21 against players ranked 130 or better, which is a very poor record.
I am surprised that the bookies have Joao Souza (125) as an underdog in this match. His recent form is decent and he impressed me by beating the young super-talent Casper Ruud in the previous round. If he put up another performance like that I reckon he will win this match comfortably. I am not sure the home advantage is that important, as Jarry had only won one match ever in Santiago before this tournament, while Souza have been in a semi-final previously. MarathonBet have priced Souza at 2.00, and I will play that, as I believe there is more than a 50% chance of a Souza win here.
Joao Souza at 2.00 for 2 units.